A. First Predictions were that CO2 will cause Global Cooling .
The following are reported cataclysmic projections that CO2 related climate change is connected to Global Cooling typically claiming an upcoming ice age.
1912-10-23* LA Times reported that the Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society – “Fifth ice age is on the way…..Human race will have to fight for its existence against cold.”
Comment: The Journal of the Meteorological Society prediction of a Fifth and new ice age is inconsistent with the facts. The Earth has been in the 5th ice age since it started 2.5 million years ago bearing the name “Quaternary Glaciation”. That ice age is currently ongoing with many periods of glacial advancement and retreat. See discussion in Question 2, Item E.
1923-08-09 * Chicago Tribune reported that Professor Gregory of Yale University stated that “another world ice-epoch is due.” He warned that North America would disappear as far south as the Great Lakes, and huge parts of Asia and Europe would be “wiped out” by glaciers.
Comment: An advancing glaciation was not measured and there is no evidence that it will happen within the next ten thousand years. The Earth is currently in an ice age known as “Quaternary Glaciation” that has been ongoing for the last 2.58 million years. See Question 2, Item E. There is insufficient credible evidence as to when it will end. There are many periods within an ice age period where the glaciers advance and then retreat. Glaciers have been retreating for the last 25 thousand years and has apparently peaked indicating that an advancing period may begin in the next several thousand years.
1923-09-23* Time Magazine reported that changes in the sun’s heat and southward advance of glaciers in recent years have given rise to the conjectures of the possible advent of a new ice age.
Comment: Earth is currently in the Quaternary Glaciation Ice Age that started 2.5 million years ago. See Question 2, Item E.
1958* -Geophysicist Maurice Ewing, of Columbia University’s wrote an article in Harper’s magazine describing a “coming ice age.”
Comment: Earth is currently in the Quaternary Glaciation Ice Age that started 2.5 million years ago. He was likely misquoted by the magazine since an average geophysicist would have known this.
1961-01-25 -The New York Times reported that studies by the US Weather Bureau indicated that a warming trend that started in 1881 was in reversal. The cooling trend started in 1940 and proceeded to 1960.
Comment: This illustrates the fluctuating nature of the Earth’s temperature and that short term data cannot credibly predict the future.
1970-04-16 –Boston Globe reported that James Lodge Jr. a scientist from the Atmospheric Research in Boulder, CO said that he predicts a new ice age by the 21st Century. He also warned that the consumption of oxygen by the combustion process will surpass all of the processes that normally returns oxygen to the atmosphere.
Comment: Predicting a new ice age when the Earth was currently in the “Quaternary Glaciation” Ice Age, suggests that Mr. Lodge was likely misquoted. A scientist with NOAA should have known the basic ice age facts. The consumption of all of the oxygen in the atmosphere is not supported by basic math. There is far more oxygen than fossil fuels. There is no evidence of any decrease in oxygen concentration beyond natural fluctuations. Oxygen fluctuations rise and fall very slightly with the seasons indicating a biological connection.
1970* Ecologist Kenneth Watt warned about a pending Ice Age. The temperature would be 11 degrees cooler in 2000.
Comment: Predicting a new ice age when the Earth was currently in the “Quaternary Glaciation” Ice Age, suggests that Mr. Watt was misquoted or misinformed. The temperature increased less than a half of a degree F rather than a drop of 11 degrees, representing a 2,000 percent error. Mr. Watt was a mathematician from University of California Davis and predicted that all oil would be depleted in 30 years, i.e. the year 2000. The world is currently using oil and Alaska alone has more than 40 billion barrels of known reserves.
1971-07-09* Washington Post stated that “In the next 50 years …. the Earth’s average temperature could fall by six degrees. Sustained emissions over five to 10 years could be sufficient to trigger an ice age.”
Comment: Another “ice age” prediction when the Earth is currently in an ice age i.e. “Quaternary Glaciation”. The temperature did not fall by 6 degrees, but actually rose slightly by less than a half degree.
1972-12-03 A group of 42 climate scientists penned by Dr. George Kukla from Czechoslovakia wrote to President Nixon advising of as projected cooling of the world. Based on that letter the US Climate Analysis Center (CAC) was formed within NOAA to investigate the problems associated with global cooling.
Comment: Another example that short term temperature fluctuations within the normal deviations (±2°C) may be misconstrued. The United States has spent over $100 billion dollars in climate change research since 1980. There is no evidence that these expenditures have improved the environment or the welfare of the United States. On the other hand, there is considerable evidence that infrastructure has been allowed to degrade from a lack of maintenance funding.
1973* The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization Courier reports an upcoming cold period with widespread evidence of a reducing ranges of birds and fish and crops and forest trees near the poleward and altitudinal limits.
Commnet: The United Nations prediction of a cold period did not occur. Between 1973 and 1990, the United Nations switched from predicting a cold period to a warming period based on the same historical data. This is the same entity that formed the IPCC.
1973-04-14 The Iowa City Press Citizen reported that Bertrand Schultz from the University of Nebraska State Museum reports that because of the global cooling that armadillos are retreating from the northern latitudes.
Comment: This is another prediction of a global cooling event. This time based on armadillo short-term migration patterns. The cooling period has not occurred to date, but historical temperature data indicates that it is likely in the next several thousand years.
1973-04-15 The Post Crescent reported that John Imbrie of Brown University expected that the warm weather will not last much longer. He was a part of CLIMPA a three institution research team of Brown University, Columbia University and Oregon State University studying global climate changes.
Comment: The cooling period has not occurred to date, but historical temperature data indicates that it is likely in the next several thousand years. These predictions show that cooling or warming trends cannot be credibly done with data less than 1000 years. See data presented in Question 2.
1974-02* Fortune Magazine reported Global Cooling going on right now, and it’s not merely something of academic interest. It is something that, if it continues, will affect the whole human occupation of the earth.
Comment: The report of Global Cooling is nothing more than “weather.” Temperature swings are common, typical, and expected. Human occupation has not been disrupted.
1974* Quaternary Research reported that there was general agreement that the present warm epoch has reached its final phase, and that disregarding possible man-made effects the natural end of this interglacial is “undoubtedly near”.
Comment: Interglacial periods last for hundreds of thousands of years as shown by the figures in Question 2, Item E. There are no interglacial periods that occur in less than 10 thousand years. As such, the statements suggesting an end to the current interglacial period within the next 50 to 100 years are without scientific support. There are glaciers currently advancing and currently retreating in both the Arctic and Antarctic regions. This is normal and typical. The statement that there is “general agreement” is propaganda repeated so often that it has its own name “Appeal to Authority Fallacy.” This fallacy is most often used to shut down dissent.
1974-06-24 Time Magazine reported that weather aberrations may be the harbinger of another ice age. They further reported that the ice and snow cover had increased by 12% in 1971 and persists. Areas in the Canadian Arctic were once totally free of snow is covered year around.
Comment: Any comment of another ice age indicates that the speaker does not know what they are talking about. As discussed in Question 2 Item R, we are currently in an ice age known as the Quaternary Glaciation, which started 2.58 million years ago. Most ice ages last hundreds of millions of years. Short term events do not signal anything regarding ice ages. These time periods are controlled almost entirely by Orbital Deviation known as Milankovitch Cycles.
1974* The University of Wisconsin projected that the earth’s climate is returning to the neo-boreal era (1600-1850). That was an era of drought, famine, and political unrest.
Comment: Professor Kutzbach of the University of Wisconsin has been predicting global doom for many years based on logarithmic cooling associated with a reduction in CO2. Logarithmic heating/cooling has been shown to be inconsistent with current and geologic historical records. See Question 10a.
1975-03-02 Chicago Tribune reported that Many Climatologists are seeing signs of significant shift in climate and could be the forerunner of an ice age.
Comment: Another “ice age” prediction indicates ignorance since the Earth is currently in an ice age i.e. “Quaternary Glaciation”. These statements appear to be more associated with media sensationalism rather than science.
1975-03-06* Nature reported that a RECENT flurry of papers has provided further evidence for the belief that the Earth is cooling. There now seems little doubt that changes over the past few years are more than a minor statistical fluctuation.
Comment: The Earth is cooling projection is consistent with geologic history, but inconsistent with short-term temperature measurements. It shows that no predictions based on data encompassing less than ten thousand years, or at the very minimum of one thousand years, is credible. Weather changes and the amounts in the last 10 thousand years are within the normal fluctuation of ±2°C. See data presented in Question 2.
1975-04-28 Newsweek reported that in 10 years or 1985 there would be a drastic decline in food production. http://www.denisdutton.com/cooling_world.htm
Comment: There was no reduction in food production between 1975 and 1985. In fact the world food production has gone up. In 1975 it was 140 percent above a 1961 reference quantity and in 1985 was 180 percent above. It did not go down during the period nor has it dropped in any of the years since 1961.
1975-06-12 The Ogden Standard Newspaper reported that Murray Mitchell, a climatologist with NOAA stated that the cooling trend continues. The average temperature has dropped in the northern hemisphere by about 1 degree Fahrenheit since the 1940’s.
Comment: A cooling trend cannot be determined in a period less than 1 thousand years. See Question 2. The temperature in 1940 was 0°C (°0F) anomaly and that went down to -.2°C (-.36°F) in 1950. It has gone up to about 0.4 °C in 2005. It has been fluctuation within the normal limits of ±2°C for the last 10 thousand years. A cooling trend or warming trend must be outside the normal fluctuations to be meaningful.
1975* – British science writer Nigel Calder stated “The threat of a new ice age must now stand alongside nuclear war as a likely source of wholesale death and misery for mankind.”
Comment: The prediction of another “ice age” and a source of wholesale death and misery. This did not happen. The Earth is currently in an ice age i.e. “Quaternary Glaciation” and hence a “new ice age is inconsistent. Nigel Calder is a writer for a magazine and Television and not a scientist.
1975* -Newsweek reported Earth’s temperature had been plunging for decades due to humanity’s activities. The drop in food output could begin quite soon, perhaps only 10 years from now.
Comment: There has been no reduction in food production and it has been steadily increasing every year. The temperature has been going up and down within the normal limits of ±2°C.
1976-07-18 -The New York Times Book Review reported that Stephen Schneider a climatologist at NOAA warned of a cooling trend and that world food reserved are insufficient hedge against future famines.
Comment: A cooling trend cannot be determined in a period less than 1 thousand years. See Question 2. The temperature has been fluctuation within the normal limits of ±2°C for the last 10 thousand years. A cooling trend or warming trend must be outside the normal fluctuations to be meaningful. Food production has gone up every year.
1978-01-05* New York Times reported that an international team of specialists has concluded from eight indexes of climate that there is no end in sight to the cooling trend of the last 30 years, at least in the Northern Hemisphere.
Comment: A cooling trend cannot be determined in a period less than 1 thousand years. See Question 2. The temperature has been fluctuation within the normal limits of ±2°C for the last 10 thousand years. A cooling trend or warming trend must be outside the normal fluctuations to mean anything.
1979-11-14* Christian Science Monitor that a Belgian scientist suggests an ice age will happen sooner and swifter than you might think.
Comment: Suggesting that an “ice age will happen sooner and swifter than you may think” is inconsistent with the fact that the Earth is currently in an ice age i.e. “Quaternary Glaciation”. The earth has been in this ice age for the last 2.5 million years. These statements appear to be more associated with media sensationalism rather than science.
1988-07-15* New York Times reported that Greenhouse Effect will cause a New Ice Age by 1995.
Comment: Suggesting that the greenhouse effect will cause a NEW “ice age by 1995 is inconsistent with the facts. The Earth is currently in an ice age i.e. “Quaternary Glaciation” that started 2.5 million years ago. These statements appear to be more associated with media sensationalism rather than science.