B. Second Predictions were that CO2 will cause Global Warming
The following are reported cataclysmic projections that CO2 related climate change is connected to Global Warming including famine, sea levels wiping out low lying communities, end of the world and civilization, and the like.
1890-06-23* New York Times June 23 reported temperate summers and failure of the ice crop throughout the Hudson Valley. Residents say the winters are not as cold as they used to be.
Comment: The temperature data from records show a typical year with typical fluctuations. The highest snowfall ever measured was February 12, 2006 (26.9 inches of snow) and second highest was January 23, 2016 (26.8 inches).
1922-11-22. The Washington Post reported a quote about the Eastern Arctic by Dr. Adolf Hoel with the Norwegian Department of Commerce that: “Many old landmarks are so changed as to be unrecognizable. Where formerly great masses of ice were found, there are now often moraines, accumulations of earth and stone. At many points where glaciers formerly extended far into the sea they have entirely disappeared.”
Comment: Satellite photos taken in 2019 shows the area to be iced over. The Greenland Jakobshavn Glacier is advancing. It became 22-33 yards thicker in three years (2016 -2019). The Jakobshavn is 40 miles long and more than a mile thick and was the source of the iceberg that sank the Titanic
1933-03-27* New York Times reports that America was in the longest warm spell since 1776.
Comment: There is no definition of “warm spell” making it impossible to respond.
1969* Presidential advisor Daniel Moynihan, a Democrat senator stated the CO2 content will rise 25% by 2000 and raise the temperature by 7°F. This in turn could raise the level of the sea by 10 feet. Goodbye New York. Goodbye Washington.
Comment: Politicians are often wrong. The CO2 content rose 13% between 1969 and 2000. The temperature rose 0.4°F during that period illustrating an overstatement by 1750%. New York and Washington remain intact. The sea level has not risen by 10 feet. Sea level measurements are difficult to accurately measure when the amounts involved are less than a half inch.
1972-05-16* LA Times reported that Arctic specialist Bernt Balchen says a general warming trend over the North Pole is melting the polar ice cap and may produce an ice-free Arctic Ocean by the year 2000.
Comment: The polar ice cap was not ice-free by 2000 and current satellite photos show ice coverage of the polar cap. Bernt Balchen was a well-known Norwegian aviator, but not so much in climate science. A report by Principia Scientific dated 11-26-2016 reported about 112,000,000,000 tons/year of net new ice was being added each year between 1992 and 2001. The Greenland Jakobshavn Glacier is currently growing. It became thicker by 22 to 33 yards between 2016 and 2019. The Jakobshavn is 40 miles long and more than a mile thick and was the source of the iceberg that sank the Titanic.
1980 The Associated Press stated in 1989 that “A senior UN Environmental official says entire nations would be wiped off the face of the earth by rising sea levels if global warming is not reversed by the year 2000.”
Comment: There has been no reported nation wiped off the face of the Earth by 2000. This is the same UN entity that said in 1973 that there was a cold period occurring.
1982* U.N. official Mostafa Tolba, executive director of the UN Environment Program, warned: “By the turn of the century, an environmental catastrophe will witness devastation as complete, as irreversible, as any nuclear holocaust.”
Comment: There has been no environmental catastrophe on the scale of a nuclear holocaust in 2000. It is unknown if the UN is contending damage from a cold trend as they stated in 1973 or from a warming trend and as they said in 1980.
1986-06-11* San Jose Mercury News reported a global warming trend could bring heat waves, dust-dry farmland and disease, the experts said… Under this scenario, the resort town of Ocean City, Md., will lose 39 feet of shoreline by 2000 and a total of 85 feet within the next 25 years.
Comment: There has been no non-expected environmental heat wave, dust-dry farmland and disease. Ocean City, MD has not lost 39 feet of shoreline by 2000 from rising sea levels. There has been beach erosion from hurricanes in Ocean City that have been repaired. Beachfront properties are appreciating.
1988 Jim Hansen, the scientist who testified in 1988 before Congress about the greenhouse effect, stated that in 20 years the West Side Highway along the Hudson River in New York City would be underwater.
Comment: It has now been 31 years and there is no water interfering with the West Side Highway. Dr. Hansen has been a climate change advocate, a critic of the coal industry, supporter for a tax on oil and gas, opposed the keystone pipeline, and argued against the use of fossil fuels.
1988-06-24* NewYork Times reported that temperature will rise 3 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit by 2025 to 2050.
Comment: The temperature has gone up 1.4°F since 1870 to present and there is no competent evidence that it will rise 3°F by 2050. The IPCC in its most extreme projections has it going up 2.8°F by 2050, but that projection was shown to be unsupported by and inconsistent with temperature measurements in Geological records. See discussion and data in Question 10. The 9°F prediction appears to be media hype.
1989 * A senior U.N. environmental official Noel Brown, stated entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000.
Comment: There has been no nation wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels as of 2020. Noel Brown’s degrees in political science and International Relations indicates a lack of education on climate issues.
1989* – Noel Brown, also predicted that “Shifting climate patterns would bring back 1930s Dust Bowl conditions to Canadian and U.S. wheatlands.”
Comment: The United Nations predicted a cold period in 1973 and has now switched to predicting a hot period based on the same historical temperature data. There has been no dust bowls in Canada and US and agricultural production has gone up every year. Noel Brown’s degrees in political science and International Relations may be one of the reasons another one of his failed predictions.
1989* – Joseph Romm, a senior fellow at American Progress, stated “It now seems inevitable that a number of island nations will be wiped off the face of the earth because we didn’t act in time.”
Comment: There has been no nation wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels. Joe Romm is the editor of a magazine and climate blog advocating the Greenhouse Effect. He has written books on how scientists and climate activists can communicate more persuasively to the public, i.e. how to incorporate propaganda into science.
1989 – Associated Press reported computer models, researchers concluded that global warming would raise average annual temperatures nationwide two degrees by 2010.
Comment: The temperature of the Earth has risen 0.8 °C since 1870 and that was overstated by mathematical ratio manipulation, which would have shown 0.58°C. See discussion of Question 2, Item B. The normal temperature deviations over the last 580 million years is ±2°C for a span of 4°C. Hence, two degrees rise between 1989 and 2010 not only did not occur, it was well within the normal and typical fluctuations.
1989-09-17* St. Louis Post Dispatch reported that ‘New York will probably be like Florida 15 years from now.’
Comment: The temperature conditions between New York and Florida has not changed in the last 15 years. This appears to be more media scare tactics rather than science or history.
1990* UN IPCC author Michael Oppenheimer, claimed that by 1995, the “greenhouse effect” would be “desolating the heartlands of North America and Eurasia with horrific drought, causing crop failures and food riots.”
Comment: There was no horrific drought, crop failures, or food riots as predicted. In fact food production has substantially increased. There has not been any reported food riots. These are the types of predictions are intended to scare rather than inform. Dr Oppenheimer acknowledged that the IPCC has inherent conflicts between communicating with governments or the public. He was involved in Al Gore’s film “An Inconvenient Truth”, and is a holder of the “Barbra Streisand Chair of Environmental Studies.”
1990* UN IPCC author Michael Oppenheimer, claimed that by 1996, the Platte River of Nebraska “would be dry, while a continent-wide black blizzard of prairie topsoil will stop traffic on interstates, strip paint from houses and shutdown computers.”
Comment: As of today, the Platte River is doing well and far from dry. There have been no black blizzards of prairie topsoil, no paint stripped from houses, and no widespread shutdown of computers. Dr. Oppenheimer has been involved in numerous predictions intended to scare rather than inform that did not happen. He is a climate change advocate and involved in Al Gore’s film “An Inconvenient Truth” and is a holder of the “Barbara Streisand Chair of Environmental Studies.”
1990-04-18* Denver Post reported that huge sand dunes extending east from Colorado’s Front Range may be on the verge of breaking through the thin topsoil, transforming America’s rolling High Plains into a desert because of the Greenhouse Effect.
Comment: The Great Sand Dunes National Park was formed in 1932 by Herbert Hoover. There is no evidence that it was going to break through the topsoil and transform anything.
1990-04-22* ABC, The Miracle Planet reported we have 10 years to save the rainforests, but in many cases five years. Madagascar will largely be gone in five years unless something happens.
Comment: The rainforests have not disappeared by 2000. The Madagascar had 43,500 square miles of forests as of 2018. The predictions that it would be gone by 1995 were and are unsupported by the facts. Almost all of the publications concerning rainforests are from environmentalists that pick and choose which rainforest to report on depending upon the amount of reductions at that time. Satellite images show significant new growth of rainforests previously lost by fire or deforestation, reportedly because of the higher CO2 concentrations. See Question 12 for benefits of higher CO2 levels.
1990-10-15* Buffalo News quotes Carl Sagan and saying the planet could face an “ecological and agricultural catastrophe” by the next decade if global warming trends continue. “
Comment: There has been no “ecological or agricultural catastrophe” by 2000. In fact there has been an increase in agricultural production from the higher CO2 content. NASA’s satellite photos show about a 15 to 20 percent increase in green leaf area between 1982 and 2015. This increased greening was apparent in satellite images available to the public and Dr. Sagan in 1990.
1993-02* Thomas E. Lovejoy, Smithsonian Institution, stated that most of the great environmental struggles will be either won or lost in the 1990s and by the next century it will be too late.
Comment: The generalized statements are directed to emotions rather than facts. Dr. Lovejoy is a proponent of stopping all deforestation and a strong advocate of eliminating fossil fuel emissions. Strangely, his positions are inconsistent. The higher CO2 concentrations have increased the biota by 15 to 20% during this period as documented by satellite photos. The only way to make his positions consistent would be to conclude that fossil fuel emissions have no effect on CO2 concentrations. This is consistent with the data and discussions in Question 10, Item C.
1997-12-1* Science Magazine reports that Wallace S. Broecker, Newberry Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University said temperatures across Europe could plummet in a span of 10 years .
Comment: The generalized statements are directed to emotions rather than facts. Dr. Lovejoy is a proponent of stopping all deforestation and a strong advocate of eliminating fossil fuel emissions. The higher CO2 concentrations have increased the biota by 15 to 20% during this period as documented by satellite photos.
1997-26* The Birmingham Post (England) reported that scientists are warning that some of the Himalayan glaciers could vanish within ten years  because of global warming. A build-up of greenhouse gases is blamed for the meltdown, which could lead to drought and flooding in the region affecting millions of people.
Comment: Himalayan glaciers have not disappeared by 2009 and are still in existence. Twenty years later, the IPCC (2007 Assessment Report) predicted that the glaciers would now disappear by 2035. In 2010 the IPCC retracted that prediction because the statement was not peer-reviewed and was unrealistic. The Indian government investigated the claims and found the Himalayan glaciers retreat and advance all the time and it was “nothing out of the ordinary.” The IPCC chief was later relieved of his position.
1999-09-11* – The Guardian September 11, 1999 reported that within a decade, the disease (Malaria) will be common again on the Spanish coast. The effects of global warming are coming home to roost in the developed world.
Comment: Malaria was eliminated from the Spanish Coast in the 1960’s. The newspaper article dealt with speculation that if the temperature of the waters rises, then it would harbor more mosquitos. A study published in 2014 concluded “a very low risk of re-emergence in Spain.
2000* Dr. Michael Oppenheimer of the Environmental Defense Fund New York Times stated that children in New York will see snowless winters.
Comment: Dr. Oppenheimer of the IPCC has repeatedly made failed predictions without evidence. The blizzard on February 12, 2006 dropped 26.9 inches of snow on NYC, the highest snowfall ever measured. This was followed by the one on January 23, 2016 which dropped 26.8 inches, the second largest in history. Dr. Oppenheimer was involved in Al Gore’s film “An Inconvenient Truth” and is a member of the “Barbra Streisand Chair of Environmental Studies.”
2000-03-11* –Star News, quoted Mike Changery, National Climatic Data Center that “We are beginning to approximate the kind of warming you should see in the winter season.” Comment: This statement is too broad to make a response. The equator is where there are no divided seasons. In areas where there are seasons, none could be found where they became the same.
2000-03-20* – UK Independent Charles Onians stated that snow is rapidly diminishing from Britain’s culture, because of global climate change and we will have fewer white Christmases.
Comment: This statement is too broad to make an adequate response. However, the statement that in the United Kingdom that they will have fewer white Christmases has not occurred. In the winter of 2009-10, the UK had the coldest winter since 1962 and in Scotland it was the coldest since 1914.
2000-03-20* Dr. David Viner, Senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia stated that within a few years winter snowfall will become a very rare and exciting even. Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.
Comment: Dr. Viner is with HadCRUT4 which handles and measures the temperatures throughout the world. This statement is so extreme that it has little credibility. Plots of the weekly snowfall cover between 1972 and 2018 show no change. http://www.climate4you.com/SnowCover.htm Dr. Viner has left CRU to become a Principal Advisor on Climate Change for a large engineering company.
2000* Noel Brown from the UN stated “the most conservative scientific estimate [is] that the Earth’s temperature will rise 1 to 7 degrees in the next 30 years.”
Comment: The United Nations predicted a cold period in 1973 and has now switched to predicting a hot period based on the same historical temperature data. The temperature was not specified as to C or F, but it is believed he was referring to C because he previously said 3 to 9°F. The temperature has gone up 0.8°C (1.4°F) since 1870 to present and there is no competent evidence that it will rise 7°C (12.6°F) by 2030. The IPCC in its most extreme projections has it going up 1.6°C (2.8°F) by 2050, but that projection was shown to be unsupported by and inconsistent with temperature measurements in Geological records. See discussion and data in Question 10. Noel Brown’s degrees in political science and International Relations may be one of the reasons for his failed predictions.
2001* In the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report they predicted an end of snow in many countries and “milder winter temperatures with decreased heavy snowstorms.”
Comment: The IPCC has many failed predictions. There has been no country that previously received snow in the winter that no longer receives winter snow. In New York City, for example, the blizzard on February 12, 2006 dropped 26.9 inches of snow and the highest snowfall every measured. This was followed by the one on January 23, 2016 which dropped 26.8 inches, the second largest in history. Weekly snowfall records in the Northern Hemisphere between 1972 and 2018 show no change. http://www.climate4you.com/SnowCover.htm
2002* – George Monbiot wrote in the UK Guardian that within “in as little as 10 years,  the world will be faced with a choice: arable farming either continues to feed the world’s animals or it continues to feed the world’s people. It cannot do both.”
Comment: Mr. Monbiot is a friction writer and political activist. Wikipedia states that: “Monbiot believes that drastic action coupled with strong political will is needed to combat global warming.” The predictions cited above did not happen by the 2012. In fact, the opposite has occurred. There has been no reduction in food production. The world food production has gone up every year because of rising CO2 content. See Question XX.
2003-10 Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall from Jet Propulsion Labs under contract with the US Defense Technical Information Center reported in 2003 that if the projections of experts are true, then by 2020 the following events are likely to occur.
- The thermohaline will collapse and disrupt Europe.
- Drought would persist in critical agricultural regions.
- Average Temperature in Australia and SH would drop by 4 °.
- Average temperature in Northern Europe would drop by 6 °F.
- Temperatures in North America would increase by 6 °F.
- Winter Storms and Winds would intensify.
- Effects of drought would be more devastating.
- By 2020 Europe’s climate would become like Siberia.
- Food shortages due to decreased agriculture production.
The report is available at https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a469325.pdf
1. The thermohaline is the ocean’s currents that circle the earth. It is driven primarily by density differences. There has been no reported adverse disruption or collapse. There was one study speculated that it may have reduced by 15% over the last 200 years.
- There has been no drought in any critical agriculture region. The agriculture production has increased because of the rising CO2 content.
- The Southern Hemisphere has as increased slightly about 1°F since 1870 to present.
- The temperature in Northern Europe has not dropped but has risen slightly by about 1.5°F since 1870. The average fluctuation is ±2°C (3.6°F) based on historical records going back 570 million years.
- The Temperatures in North American has increased about 1.5°F and not 6°F since 1870.
- Winter Storms and Winds have been within expected and normal ranges.
- Droughts have not been more devastating. It has been the opposite. The higher CO2 content has caused an expansion of the green areas.
- Europe’s climate has not become like Siberia. It have the opposite has occurred. It has warmed slightly.
- Food shortages have not occurred. The opposite has happened. The food production has increased due to the higher CO2 levels.
Every one of the predictions either did not occur or there was an opposite outcome.
2005* The UN Environment Programme’s (UNEP) report predicted that, by 2010, some 50 million “climate refugees” would be fleeing regions such as the Caribbean and low-lying Pacific islands, along with coastal areas.
Comment: The UN prediction of 50 million climate refugees fleeing low lying islands by 2010 did not happen. The UN’s IPCC has now extended the time for a climate refugee problem to 2100 but increased the number of fleeing refuges to 2 billion people, i.e. 1/5th of the world’s population. It is impossible to put 2 billion people in the Caribbean and low-lying Pacific islands. It also assumed that CO2 controls temperature, which the IPCC now admits that it does not. See Discussion Question 6, Items A & B. A plot of historical CO2 and Temperature records going back more than 500 million years negates a direct relationship. See Question 10 Items A and B. In response to a claim that some of the Solomon Island were being swallowed up by a sea level change of 10 mm (.4 inch) a study conducted. It was reported that these small islands that skimmed the surface at low tide was being eroded by wave erosion.
2007* Australia’s The Age stated that Australia will lose part of their continent to flooding as melting ice dramatically increases the sea level.
Comment: There has been no dramatic increase in sea level. Sea Levels have been exceptionally constant within normal fluctuations for the last 8 thousand years. This is shown in Figure 8 of the Post Glacial Sea Level rise by Global Warming Art by Robert Rohde. The IPCC expanded the scale by 1000 and expresses the rise in millimeters (25 mm per inch).
2007-04-03* Science Daily stated that there will be increasing Atlantic hurricanes because Global Warming.
Comment: Between 1980 and 2018 the average number of hurricanes has gone down from 52/year to 44/year. The average number of major hurricanes during this period have gone up slightly from 23/year to 27/year and within the standard deviation. The current trend in major hurricanes is diminishing from 27 in 2018 to 18 in 2019.
2008-06-20* National Geographic reported that David Barber, of the University of Manitoba, told them that Arctic warming has become so dramatic that the North Pole may melt this summer (2008).
Comment: The North Pole was ice covered in 2019. TheGuardian reported on June 14, 2017 that an expedition of 40 scientists set off from Quebec City to determine the effects of climate change on Hudson Bay. The expedition got stuck in thicker than normal sea ice. Dr. Barber helped in the rescue and gave the opinion that the thicker ice was caused by climate change.
2008. Al Gore said that the North Pole would be ice free in 5 to 7 years.
Comment: Satellite photos of the North Pole showed that it was covered by ice. The same year that Al Gore predicted the ice free Arctic, the Danish Meteorological Institute measured increasing Arctic Ice. Between 2012 and 2016 the Arctic ice increased from 2.2 million square miles to 3.3 million square miles.
2008. Australian Climate Institute stated that climate change has increased inflections, allergies, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, particularly in the Asian countries.
Comment: There is a lack of evidence cited or available that proves that “climate change” is responsible for such physical conditions. Satellite photos of the North Pole showed that it was covered by ice.
2009* The World Wildlife Fund (WWF) has warned the world has less than five years to get carbon emissions under control or runaway climate change will become inevitable.
Comment: A runaway climate event has never happened. There are too many modulating phenomena built into the earth’s natural systems. This is backed up by the geological history records going back 570 million years. The Wildlife Fund has made numerous predictions in their website that have been shown to be untrue. They predicted that agricultural yields are dropping. Because of the rising CO2 content the yields have been steadily improving. There is no evidence or data that yields are dropping. The Fund contended that the forests are burning. The United State Geological Survey reports that there is not a direct relationship between climate change and fire. Most fires in California are ignited by humans. Many fires are the result of inadequate maintenance of power lines, litigation barring clear cutting, etc. Scientists often conflate “risk” of fire rather than the fact of fire causation.
2009* The Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment Report stated that “There is a possibility of an ice-free Arctic Ocean for a short period in summer perhaps as early as 2015. This would mean the disappearance of multi-year ice, as no sea ice would survive the summer melt season.
Comment: That prediction did not occur. Satellite photos of the North Pole showed that it was covered by ice. Between 2012 and 2016 the Arctic ice increased from 2.2 million square miles to 3.3 million square miles.
2009* Then-National Aeronautics and Space Administration [NASA] Goddard Space Flight Center head James Hansen warned that Obama only “has four years to save Earth.”
Comment: 2013 has come and gone and Earth is still here. Dr. Hansen had previously predicted that the west side highway in New York City would be under water. That did not happen. Dr. Hansen has been a climate change advocate, a critic of the coal industry, supporter for a tax on oil and gas, opposed the keystone pipeline, and argued against the use of fossil fuels. Dr. Hansen also told the UK Register June 23, 2008 that all oil company executives should be locked up for denying global warming.
2009* Britain’s Prince Charles told industrialists and environmentalists that he had calculated that we have just 96 months left to save the world and that there would be “irretrievable climate and ecosystem collapse, and all that goes with it.”
Comment: That period has come and gone and the world is still here. His failed prediction did not change his opinion that the Earth is doomed. He just changed the “when” date to 35 years i.e. 2050. Prince Charles is a firm believer in Astrology.
2009-10-19 Prime Minister Gordon Brown said we only have 50 days left to save the world from the devastations of climate change.
Comment: 50 day is the shortest time to doomsday. That time has come and gone and Earth is doing fine. Gordon Brown’s degree in history should have helped him. Geologic historical records show that the Earth has had 40 times higher CO2 concentration (8000+ppmv) than today without being destroyed.
2012-08-12* – Financial Times Magazine reported that David Vaughan Glaciologist & IPCC member said “It could even be this year or next year but not later than 2015 there won’t be any ice in the Arctic in the summer.”
Comment: The Arctic was ice covered in 2019. This projection is inconsistent given the fact that a couple of years after the statement the Arctic sea ice increased. It went from 2.2 million square miles in 2012 to 3.3 million square miles in 2016. In 2015, David Vaughan changed his position in the IPCC (2013) report projecting that the Arctic would be “almost” ice free in the late 21st century (2050-2090). Taking such inconsistent positions in only two years raises significant questions as to the accuracy of the IPCC’s projections. The Greenland Jakobshavn Glacier is growing. It became thicker by 22 to 33 yards between 2016 and 2019. The Jakobshavn is 40 miles long and more than a mile thick and was the source of the iceberg that sank the Titanic.
2020 The Environmental Defense fund in its website states that global warming can increase snowfall, can make it feel colder, and a warming of the Arctic worsens cold snaps.
Comment: The organization admits that they are activists and advocates for climate change. Cold spells, increased snowfall, and it feels cold is probably more related to lower temperatures rather than higher temperatures. The long term historical records show that temperatures have been going down. See data presented in Question 2. The HadCRUT4 (officials that handle the temperature data) methodology misapplied land-ocean relationships skewing the actual world average temperature almost 26% higher than actual. The reported CO2 concentrations are dry concentrations and not actual concentrations. The dry concentrations can be 12 to 15 ppmv lower than the actual.