B. Temperature Controls the CO2 Levels.
Background: One of the foremost experts in geologic history using proxy records is Veizer, J, Godderis, Y, & Francois, L (Dec 7, 2000) Evidence for decoupling of atmospheric CO2 and global climate during the Phanerozoic eon, Nature, Vol 407. Veizer et al were involved in logging the temperature trends during the Phanerozoic era using changes in the Oxygen 18 isotope ratio. This data went back 550 million years. This study found that several periods the temperature predictions based on carbon dioxide concentrations were not supported, indicating a decoupling (non-relationship) between Carbon Dioxide and Temperature. This was immediately challenged by Dana Royer Royer, D. et al, (2004) CO2 as a Primary Driver of Phanerozoic Climate, GSA Today, Vo 14, No 3, 4-10 for using records that were not corrected by pH effects. Dana Royer was quoted multiple times in numerous assessment reports by the IPCC while Veizer J was not cited a single time.
CO2 lags behind Temperature In Robinson A.B, Robinson N.E., & Soon W (2007) Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons, Vol 12, No. 3, pgs. 79-90 the authors studied the timing of temperature increases and carbon dioxide rising using the last 500,000 years and found that:
“Figure 16.Temperature rise versus CO2 rise from seven ice-core measured interglacial periods; from calculations and measurements of sea water out-gassing; and as measured during the 20th and 21st centuries. The interglacial temperature increases caused the CO2 rises through release of ocean CO2. The CO2 rises did not cause the temperature rises.” Emphasis Pg. 84.
If the CO2 rises AFTER the temperature increases, then such observation is directly contrary to the argument that CO2 causes the temperature to rise. Robinson et al stated:
“Hydrocarbon use is uncorrelated with temperature. Temperature rose a century before significant hydrocarbon use. The temperature rose between 1910 and 1940 while hydrocarbon use was almost unchanged. Temperature then fell between 1940 and 1972 while hydrocarbon use rose by 330%. Pg. 82.
The publication also plotted the number of Atlantic hurricanes making landfall, the number of maximum hurricane wind speeds, and the number of violent Atlantic hurricanes (pg. 81). It showed NO INCREASE in any of them over the average for the last 60+ years. It also found that the amount of rainfall increased slightly by about 6 percent per 100 years. The number of F3 to F5 tornadoes between 1950 and 2006 dramatically went down in the United States by 43% (pg. 80). On the other hand, the amount of agricultural growth in plants had increased 30%. Cutting CO2 emissions will decrease food production significantly while adding CO2 will increase food production. The Robinson publication was not cited or referenced in any of the IPCC’s many Assessment Reports.
A study by Mudelsee, M (2001) The phase relations among atmospheric CO2 content, temperature and global ice volume over the past 420 ka, Quaternary Science Reviews 20, 583-589, reported a long term phase CO2 lagging behind Temperature. In Petit, J.R. et. al. (1999) Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica. Nature 399: 429-436, the authors reported that the CO2 decrease lagged behind temperature decrease during each glacial termination period. Indermuhle, A et. al. (2000) Atmospheric CO2 concentration from 60 to 20 kyr BP from the Taylor Dome ice core, Antarctica. Geophysical Research Letters 27: 735-738 found that based on statistical testing there was a shift in the CO2 content that lagged the shifts in the air temperature in the Antarctica polar region. Monnin E et. al. (2001) Atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the last glacial termination. Science 291:112-114, found that the CO2 rise started AFTER the temperature increased. Idso, S.B (1989) Carbon Dioxide and Global Change: Earth in Transition. IBR Press, Tempe, AZ voiced his opinion that CO2 never preceded changes in air temperature but actually lagged behind. He concluded that changes in CO2 concentration cannot be the cause of changes in air temperature.
A study by Fischer, H, et al (1999) Ice Core Records of Atmospheric CO2Around the Last Three Glacial Terminations, Science, Vol 283, pgs. 1712-1714 reported that the rise in CO2 concentration lagged temperature increases by 400 to 1000 years. The records also showed that the CO2 concentrations remained constant although there was a significant drop in temperature. There were many historical situations where there were CO2 concentrations over 1000 ppmv occurring during ice or cold periods. Ekart, D., Cerling, T., Montanez, I. and Tabor, N. (1999) A 400 Million Year Carbon Isotope Record of Pedogenic Carbonate: Implications for Paleoatmospheric Carbon Dioxide. American Journal of Science, 299, 805-827; Retallack, G. (2001) A 300-Million-Year Record of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide from Fossil Plant Cuticles. Nature, 411, 287-290; Sigman, D. and Boyle, E. (2000) Glacial/Interglacial Variations in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide. Nature, 407, 859-869; Rothman, D. (2002) Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Levels for the Last 500 Million Years. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 99, 4167-4171.
The wording used by the IPCC that states a “closely parallel” connection does not say which came first, i.e. “show that the Earth’s temperature closely paralleled the amount of carbon dioxide.” Technically this may be true, but it was the temperature that made the CO2 increase not the other way around.