Question 5. When Will it Be Over [Quorvita]
A. Projection Models
A projection model was used based using the 2018 influenza and CoVID-19 death rate curves. However, because the death rate data associated with COV-19 may be compromised, this raises serious concerns relative to the accuracy of the projection model. A projection model is only as good as the data used in the model.
The use of infections or cases has significant deficiencies. The numbers are highly dependent on the amount of testing. As the testing rate increases, it would result in a higher number of reported cases. Also, the number of people testing does not reflect the total number of people infected. Antibody testing showed that active COVID-19 testing was 7 to 85 times lower than actual infections.
B. Can Mitigation Efforts Affect the Projected Death Rates?
Mitigation includes everything from personal protection to drugs, vaccines, medical procedures, etc. As such, mitigation efforts can reduce the death rates.
- Get a flu shot. A study out of Italy showed a significant reduction in COVID-19 deaths with those who had a flu shot.
- One promising medical procedure called “proning” appears to be exceptionally successful for those on ventilators.
- Deep breathing exercises, reduce sleeping only on your back, and get up and walk around may help with COVID-19 treatment.
- The FDA has approved Remdesivir for the treatment of COVID-19. There are many new treatment drugs are in clinical trials. The link below discusses many of these drugs or treatments. There are hundreds and hundreds of clinical trials ongoing currently.
- Convalescent plasma therapy may have a high success rate on viral infections. The procedure has been around since 1880 and has been approved by the FDA as an emergency use for COVID-19. Mayo Clinic™ has rated the risk associated with this therapy as low.
- The best personal protection efforts would be fever detection. If implemented, it would have the most significant effect on reducing deaths.
C. Can Another COVID-19 Wave Occur?
Historical observations show that multiple waves of viral infections in the same year are rare. The Spanish flu was unusual in that it had two waves within the same flu season.
An effective vaccine is likely before the next time COVID-19 returns, if it does. Because of the likely connection between the influenza virus and COVID-19, it is important to vaccinate against both.
An aggressive implementation of the Japanese and South Korean quarantine model of early detection and home isolation, will be easier since the United States now leads the world in testing procedures, distribution, and implementation.
Finally, procedures to take the temperatures of visitors and friends should be implemented by that time.
ANSWER TO QUESTION 5. [Quorvita]